Two major U.S. investment banks, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America, published reports on Argentina's macroeconomic scenario and its outlook for the financial market in 2025. Both agreed on the importance of the country reaching a new agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to advance in a gradual process of eliminating the exchange rate clamp.

Morgan Stanley Outlook

The Morgan Stanley report  warned that Argentina'  s current account showed signs of deterioration in the second half of 2024. However, he noted that a surplus in the financial account could make up for this shortfall. The IMF projected an initial disbursement of USD 5 billion by the IMF in 2025, as part of a program that could reach USD 20 billion, subject to compliance with fiscal and monetary conditions.

According to the analysis, the elimination of exchange restrictions will be progressive and will depend on the accumulation of international reserves. Morgan Stanley estimated that Argentina's central bank (BCRA) could increase its net reserves by USD 7 billion during the year, which would provide room for further flexibility in foreign exchange market access.

Bank of America Analysis

For its part, Bank of America highlighted that the  Argentine government's fiscal adjustment strategy  made it possible to reduce country risk and improve access to external financing. The bank agreed with the expectation of an agreement with the IMF in the first half of 2025, specifically before April. In addition, it projected that initial disbursements could range between USD 5,000 and USD 10,000 million, which would strengthen the BCRA's position.

Accumulation of reserves and exit strategy from the clamps

Morgan Stanley analyzed in detail the relationship between exchange rate policy and reserve accumulation. According to its projections, the  country's financial account could generate a surplus of USD 9,800 million in 2025, driven by disbursements from multilateral organizations, corporate financing and purchases of foreign currency by the private sector.

In this scenario, the exit from the exchange clamp would take place in a staggered manner. The entity projected that the Government would advance in the normalization of the payment of imports and in the flexibility of access to the financial dollar. However, it would maintain restrictions on the purchase of foreign currency by individuals and companies until reserves reach an adequate level.

Agreement with the IMF and access to international credit

Bank of America stressed that the success of the economic program underway will depend on the government's ability to negotiate a new agreement with the IMF. This agreement would allow debt payments to be refinanced and fiscal sustainability to be improved.

Morgan Stanley also emphasized that the relationship with the IMF is decisive for the evolution of country risk. If the government manages to advance in a new program with credible fiscal and monetary targets, sovereign bonds could continue their upward trend, improving financing conditions.

However, the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, referred to the market speculation about the agreement with the IMF. On his X account  (formerly Twitter), he ironized: "Nothing that is being said about the agreement with the Fund is correct. It's hard to miss everything, but they're succeeding!".

Risks and challenges for the economic program

Both banks identified several risks that could affect Argentina's economic and financial stability in 2025. Among the main factors of uncertainty were:

1. Delays in the negotiation with the IMF, which could generate tensions in the debt market.
2. An insufficient level of international reserves, which would make it difficult to get out of the exchange clamp in an orderly manner.
3. A context of real appreciation of the peso, which could harm the competitiveness of exports.
4. External shocks that affect access to financing, also related to exchange rate appreciation.

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