⚖️ Labor reform in Congress

The ruling party seeks to approve changes in extraordinary sessions, with tense negotiations between governors and the CGT. Patricia Bullrich and Diego Santilli lead the negotiating wing in a scenario full of political tension.

🏛️ Political context

• 📅 Beginning of extraordinary sessions: Congress opened its agenda with labor reform as the central issue.
• 👩 💼 Bullrich and Santilli: leaders of the ruling party who are leading the negotiations.
• ✊ CGT in resistance: deploys  a national tour to pressure governors and stop the project.

📜 Project content

• 🔧 Flexibility of contracts: new contracting modalities.
• 💰 Reduction of labor costs: simplification of compensation.
• 🌍 Official objective: to modernize the labor market and attract investment.
• 🚨 Union criticism: they denounce a setback in acquired rights.

🔥 Tensions and negotiations

• 🤝 Government vs. governors: some support, others condition their vote.
• 🚩 CGT on the offensive: meetings, mobilizations and the threat of a national strike.
• ⏳ Ruling party against the clock: the Senate plans to deal with the initiative on February 11, with no votes assured.

📊 Keys to the debate

🔮 Possible scenarios

• ✅ Approval without changes: political triumph for Milei, but with massive union protests.
• ✏️ Approval with modifications: partial consensus, but with reduced scope.
• ❌ Rejection: strong political blow to the ruling party and escalation of the union conflict.

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The Government promotes the reform of the Juvenile Criminal Law in extraordinary sessions

The Executive confirmed that the lowering of the age of imputability will be debated in February along with the labor reform

The national government confirmed on Monday the inclusion of the reform of the Juvenile Criminal Law in the agenda of the extraordinary sessions of Congress, which will begin next week. The decision was announced by the Chief of Cabinet, Manuel Adorni, after a strategic meeting at Casa Rosada that was attended by the political core of the ruling party.

The initiative, which seeks to modify the current regime of criminal responsibility for minors, thus joins other priority projects of the Executive, such as labor modernization and the modification of the Glacier Law, configuring a high-impact legislative agenda for the month of February.

A high-level political table

The definition was made during a meeting at Casa Rosada in which Karina Milei, Secretary of the Presidency; the Minister of the Interior, Diego Santilli; the president of the Chamber of Deputies, Martín Menem; the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo; the presidential advisor, Santiago Caputo; and Senator Patricia Bullrich.

Through his account on the social network X, Adorni ratified the decision: "We met at Casa Rosada since early. The 'Juvenile Criminal Law' will also be part of the agenda of the extraordinary sessions."

What does the reform propose?

The project originally presented by the Executive Branch in 2024 proposes lowering the age of imputability from 16 to 14 years old, although during the previous parliamentary debate there were tensions on this point. The ministers of Justice, Mariano Cúneo Libarona, and Security, Patricia Bullrich, proposed that it be established in 13 years; the deputies set it at 14.

The opinion that obtained consensus in commissions during 2025 included broader aspects than the simple modification of age: its purpose is to promote in the accused adolescent the sense of legal responsibility for his or her actions and achieve his or her education, resocialization and social integration.

Among the provisions contemplated are specific procedural guarantees for minors, such as the right to defence from the beginning of the process, deprivation of liberty as a last measure, and exclusive accommodation in specialized establishments. The sanctions applied may in no case imply an interruption of studies.

An inconclusive debate that returns to the scene

The project had already gone through an extensive debate during 2025. The discussion lasted nine months and brought together 15 different projects; the ruling never reached the floor, lost parliamentary status, forcing the Executive to restart the process from scratch.

Official sources confirmed that the government could resubmit its original version, although during the previous negotiation it had to give in on key points. The text established a maximum penalty of 20 years in prison and expressly prohibited life imprisonment. That was another of the points that were modified during the negotiation: in the ruling that advanced, the limit of custodial sentences for adolescents was set at 15 years.

The political context and the cases that accelerated the decision

The reactivation of the debate takes place in a context marked by criminal cases involving minors and generating media repercussions. The most recent cases include the murder of Joaquín Ibarra, 21, and the death of Uriel Giménez, 12, in addition to the murder of Jeremías Monzón in Santa Fe.

Patricia Bullrich, current senator and former Minister of Security, was blunt on her social networks: "Society needs justice and to prevent new victims. Without consequences, there is freedom to commit crimes. There we will see clearly who is on the side of the Argentines, and who continues to defend the criminals."

Conflicting positions

The project faces strong resistance from sectors of the opposition, human rights organizations and leaders of the Catholic Church. According to a UNICEF report, there is no evidence to show that lowering the age of criminal responsibility has a favorable impact on greater security for the population.

Critics warn that a 14-year-old convicted of a felony could receive a sentence beyond his or her own age, undermining any chance that person could have a life beyond prison.

Kirchnerism already expressed its outright rejection during the debate in commissions in 2025, although the Renovation Front showed internal fissures, with legislators willing to support the initiative.

Next steps

The extraordinary sessions will begin next Monday, February 2 and will last until the 27th of the same month. With a renewed parliamentary map after the 2025 elections, the ruling party is confident of gathering the necessary support to move forward with this reform that promises to become one of the most intense debates of the legislative year.

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🔥 Fires in Patagonia: more than 15,000 hectares affected in Chubut and concern grows about possible intentionality

The forest fires that have been affecting the province of Chubut for several days have already consumed more than 15,000 hectares of native forests and grasslands, in one of the most severe events of the summer season. The provincial and national authorities are deploying a wide operation to try to contain the advance of the fire, which is favored by the high temperatures, low humidity and strong winds characteristic of the region.

🚒 A large-scale operation

More than 350 firefighters, including personnel from the National Fire Management Service (SNMF), volunteer firefighters, provincial teams and federal forces, are working on different active fronts. The operation includes:

• Ground crews with hand tools and motor pumps
• Helicopters with helibucket for aerial unloading
• Hydrant planes operating from nearby bases
• Logistics, communications and health support teams

The tasks are concentrated in areas that are difficult to access, where the mountainous topography and the density of the forest make it difficult for the brigade members to advance.

🌲 Environmental impact and risk to communities

The fire affects areas of high ecological value, with the presence of native species such as cypress, coihue and lenga. Specialists warn that the recovery of these ecosystems may take decades.

Although no fatalities were recorded, several rural communities remain on preventive alert, and some residents were temporarily evacuated due to the advance of smoke and the proximity of the flames. Intermittent roadblocks were also reported on routes and secondary roads.

🔍 Possible intentionality is being investigated

Judicial and environmental authorities opened an investigation to determine the origin of the fire. Although there are no official conclusions yet,  intentionality, a recurring factor in the fires in the region in recent years, is not ruled out.

Sources from the provincial government indicated that testimonies, satellite images and patterns of fire initiation are being analyzed to establish responsibilities.

🏛️ Official response and requests for reinforcement

The national government activated the SNMF emergency protocol and sent additional resources at the request of the province. Environmental organizations and local leaders are calling for greater investment in prevention, infrastructure and control, especially in areas where real estate and tourism pressure has grown rapidly.

🌦️ Forecast and outlook

The weather forecast for the next few days anticipates adverse conditions, with high temperatures and variable winds that could complicate containment tasks. Teams on the ground are working to consolidate firebreaks and prevent the fire from reaching populated areas or more sensitive nature reserves.

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Milei in Davos: a more moderate discourse with an international focus

🌍 Introduction: a global scenario where the message can be recalibrated

Argentine President Javier Milei's participation in the World Economic Forum in Davos marked a turning point with respect to his previous interventions. Although it maintained its classical liberal narrative, the tone was significantly more moderate and aimed at building international dialogue. The speech sought to convey predictability, attract investment and reposition Argentina as an actor aligned with the market economy.

🗣️ A change of tone: ideological firmness, less confrontation

Unlike his more combative statements in the campaign or in the legislative opening, Milei opted for a less confrontational register.

• It reduced the polemical burden against multilateral organizations and foreign leaders.
• He avoided direct attacks on governments of the opposite sign.
• He prioritized macroeconomic concepts over ideological slogans.

The objective was clear: to show himself as a president capable of sustaining his convictions without dynamiting diplomatic bridges.

💼 Economic message: orthodoxy, stability and "confidence shock"

The core of the speech revolved around the need to stabilize the Argentine economy by:

• Strict tax discipline
• Trade openness
• Market deregulation
• Long-term structural reforms

Milei insisted that Argentina "has no room for gradualism," but he did so without the apocalyptic tone of other occasions. The strategy was to present the adjustment as a technical, inevitable process aimed at recovering credibility.

🌐 International focus: alignment and search for partners

The president dedicated a good part of his speech to reinforcing the idea that Argentina wants to integrate into the world.

• He reaffirmed ties with the United States and Europe, highlighting democratic values and economic freedom.
• It sought to attract capital by emphasizing legal certainty and opportunities in energy, mining and agribusiness.
• He avoided tensions with China and Brazil, despite ideological differences, which was read as a pragmatic gesture.

The implicit message: Argentina needs partners and is willing to play by predictable rules.

🧭 International reception: caution, interest and expectation

The reaction in Davos was mixed but mostly attentive.

• Businessmen and investment funds valued the shift towards a more technical discourse.
• Political analysts highlighted moderation as a sign of institutional learning.
• Foreign governments cautiously viewed the domestic viability of the reforms.

The challenge for Milei will be to turn this good initial reception into concrete commitments.

Internal impact: message to markets and opposition

In a domestic key, the speech functioned as a signal to:

• The markets, which are looking for stability and a clear direction.
• The opposition, to which Milei is trying to show that his economic program has international support.
• Its own base, which might see moderation as a tactical strategy, not as an ideological abandonment.

The balance between external pragmatism and internal radicalism will be one of the axes of his administration.

🔮 Conclusion: a more diplomatic Milei, without renouncing his identity

The visit to Davos left the image of a president who is trying to reconcile his liberal-libertarian identity with the need for international governance. The moderation of tone does not imply a change of course, but a strategic adjustment to gain global legitimacy and attract investment.

The real test will come in the coming months, when he must demonstrate that his economic program can be sustained politically within Argentina.

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📉 Foreign investment falling: Argentina registers historic deficit in 2025

Introduction

Foreign direct investment (FDI) in Argentina closed 2025 with a negative balance of USD 1,421 million, the first since 2003. The data reflects the outflow of capital and the lack of new large-scale investments, in a context of economic and political uncertainty.

Context and figures

• FDI inflows: USD 1,342 million between January and November.
• Expenditures: USD 2,763 million in the same period.
• Result: Deficit of USD 1,421 million.
• Historical comparison: In 2024 the balance had been slightly positive (USD 89 million).

Factors that explain the fall

• Exit of multinationals: Several international companies reduced operations or sold assets to local groups.
• Deteriorated investment climate: The liberalization of the exchange rate clamp failed to attract fresh capital.
• International perception: Media such as  the Financial Times remarked that the reforms of Javier Milei's government have not yet convinced large corporations.

Economic and political impact

• Worrying sign: FDI is key to productive projects and job creation.
• Challenge for the Government: It contradicts the official discourse of "macroeconomic order" and puts pressure on the strategy of trade liberalization.
• Regional comparison: Argentina differs negatively from neighboring countries that maintain positive investment flows.

Conclusion

The fall in foreign direct investment in 2025 is a negative milestone for the Argentine economy. The challenge for 2026 will be to regain credibility and attract genuine capital, preventing the exit of multinationals from becoming a structural trend.

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📰 Health alert in Argentina: cases of measles and whooping cough increase

The Ministry of Health issued an epidemiological alert after detecting a significant increase in cases of measles and whooping cough in different provinces of the country. The situation worries the authorities due to the low vaccination coverage in the child and adolescent population, which has resulted in several deaths of minors who had not received the corresponding doses.

📈 Epidemiological context

• In recent weeks, outbreaks were confirmed in Córdoba, Buenos Aires and Santa Fe, with community circulation of both diseases.
• Influenza A H3N2 is also under surveillance, although a significant increase in cases has not yet been reported.
• According to official data, measles vaccination coverage is below 85%, far from the 95% recommended by the World Health Organization.

🧪 Official statements

The Minister of Health, Carla Vizzotti, warned:

"We are facing a complex scenario. Vaccination is the most effective tool to prevent preventable deaths. We urge families to complete their children's immunization schedules."

👨 👩 👧 Social impact

• Parents expressed concern about the lack of mass vaccination campaigns in vulnerable neighborhoods.
• Medical and pediatric organizations are calling for a national plan to reinforce mobile brigades in schools and community centers.
• In public hospitals, there are long lines to access doses of MMR and vaccines against whooping cough.

📊 Key facts

🔍 Analysis

The health crisis exposes a structural weakness in the Argentine vaccination system, marked by the lack of sustained campaigns and misinformation on social networks. Experts warn that, if the trend is not reversed, the country could face an epidemic of similar magnitude to the one recorded in 2019, when measles reappeared after two decades of eradication.

📌 Conclusion

The current situation requires an immediate and coordinated response between the State, the provinces and civil society. Mass vaccination and clear communication will be key to stopping the advance of diseases that, in the 21st century, should be under control.

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📰 Politics | The reform of the Penal Code and the intense debate in Congress

📌 An ambitious project that reopens a historic discussion

The national government is promoting a comprehensive reform of the Penal Code, an initiative that seeks to update a body of legislation that has been in force since 1921 and that, according to the Executive Branch, no longer responds to the challenges of contemporary crime. The bill, which includes 920 articles and unifies more than a thousand scattered criminal laws, was sent for treatment during the extraordinary sessions of Congress, which generated a strong political and academic debate.

The proposal includes high-impact changes: tougher penalties, expansion of imprescriptible crimes, incorporation of cybercrimes, penalties for malicious use of artificial intelligence and a more severe framework for homicides, aggravated robberies and acts of corruption.

🏛️ Congress, the scene of tensions

The ruling party is betting on taking advantage of the new parliamentary composition to move forward with the project during the summer, with optimism for having reached the first legislative minority after the change of December 10. However, the decision to deal with the reform in extraordinary sessions set off alarms in different sectors.

While the government defends the urgency of modernizing the penal system, opposition legislators and civil organizations are calling for more time for analysis, public hearings and a broader debate.

🎓 Jurists and academics call for a halt to "express treatment"

More than a hundred specialists in criminal law, including university professors, judges and prosecutors, expressed their rejection of the accelerated treatment of the bill. In a statement released this week, the Argentine Association of Professors of Criminal Law (AAPDP) warned that a reform of this magnitude "cannot be resolved in a closed book" and requires a "broad, informed and participatory" process.

Specialists demand that the debate be moved to ordinary sessions, with the participation of universities, NGOs, bar associations, associations of magistrates and specialized organizations. They also pointed out that the official project could lead to an "ideologized codification" if technical contributions from various sectors are not incorporated.

Among the signatories are leaders such as Alejandro Slokar and Raúl Eugenio Zaffaroni, who stressed the need to resume the participatory antecedents of previous reforms, such as those of 2006–2007 and 2012–2014.

⚖️ The most discussed points of the project

✅ Tougher penalties

The text proposes to increase the penalties for homicides, aggravated robberies and crimes related to corruption, with the aim of strengthening deterrence and the state response to serious crimes.

✅ Tech crimes and the use of AI

For the first time, the Code would incorporate specific sanctions for cyberattacks, digital fraud and the generation of false images using artificial intelligence, a phenomenon that is growing globally.

✅ Extended imprescriptibility

The bill extends the imprescriptibility to new crimes, which implies that certain crimes can be prosecuted without a time limit.

✅ Regulatory unification

The reform seeks to order more than a thousand criminal laws scattered in a single coherent body, a historical demand of legal specialists.

🧩 A debate that transcends the legal

The discussion on the Penal Code is not only technical: it also reflects ideological differences on the role of the State, public security and the balance between prevention, punishment and constitutional guarantees.

While the government maintains that the reform is essential to confront modern crime, academic and opposition sectors warn about the risk of approving such a lengthy text without an in-depth debate.

🔮 What's next

The project will begin to be discussed in commissions during the next few weeks. The ruling party will seek to speed up its approval, although the growing demand for specialists could put pressure on the opening of broader instances of participation.

The reform of the Penal Code promises to become one of the most relevant political debates of the year, with a direct impact on security, justice and the institutional life of the country.

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📰 Labor Reform: Milei signed the bill and sent to the Senate an initiative of 191 articles that redefines the Argentine labor system

The government presented the most extensive labor reform in decades, with changes in compensation, payment methods, working hours, unions and essential services

As soon as he returned from Oslo, President Javier Milei signed the Labor Reform project  in an office of the Jorge Newbery Airport, according to La Nación. The text, which has already entered the Senate, consists of 71 pages, 26 titles and a total of 191 articles, making it one of the most comprehensive and structural initiatives in recent years.

The Chief of Staff, Manuel Adorni, described the proposal as "the largest transformation in Argentine history in labor matters," stressing that it seeks to modernize the system, reduce litigation and promote the creation of formal employment.

✅ The central axes of the project

The most relevant points of the text are then developed, integrating the key contents of the 191 articles.

💵 1. New payment methods: salaries in dollars and virtual wallets

The bill allows employers to pay salaries in dollars, cryptocurrencies or virtual wallets, as long as there is an agreement between the parties. This point seeks to make payment methods more flexible and adapt them to the digital economy.

🛡️ 2. Optional Severance Fund in Lieu of Severance

One of the most profound changes is the creation of a Labor Severance Fund, similar to the UOCRA model, which will be able to replace traditional compensation.

• It will be optional for each collective agreement.
• The employer will contribute a percentage monthly to cover eventual dismissals.
• The stated objective is  to reduce litigation and give predictability to companies.

In addition, the bill establishes that the compensation will be lower, since they will not include Christmas bonus, vacations or prizes in their calculation.

⏱️ 3. Bank of hours and changes in the working day

The text incorporates the figure of the "bank of hours", which will allow:

• Compensate overtime with days off.
• Accumulate hours worked to reorganize the working day according to productive needs.
• Agree on flexible schemes between employer and worker.

This mechanism aims to modernise the organisation of working time.

🧑 ⚖️ 4. Labor judgments: payment in installments

Another controversial point is that labor court judgments can be paid in up to 12 monthly installments, updated by official index. The Government maintains that this will prevent bankruptcies of SMEs; Critics warn about the impact on workers.

🏥 5. Expansion of essential services

The project expands the list of essential services, which involves:

• Greater limitation of the right to strike.
• Stricter mandatory minimum guards.
• Inclusion of sectors such as education, transportation, and critical digital services.

This is one of the most extensive chapters of the project.

🧾 6. Changes in the union system

The government introduced a last-minute change: It eliminated the article that affected union solidarity dues to avoid a direct conflict with the CGT.

However, he maintained one key point:

• Membership fees will be optional.
• They will require the express consent of the worker.
• The principle of individual freedom of association is reinforced.

📘 The most important contents of the draft of 191 articles

Below is a summary of the most relevant thematic blocks of the full text:

1. Modernisation of industrial relations

• New contracting modalities.
• Regulation of teleworking and remote work.
• Seasonal, project, or demand contracts.

2. Reduction of litigation

• Changes in limitation periods.
• Limitation of fines for unregistered employment.
• Mandatory conciliation mechanisms.

3. Incentives for formalization

• Labor laundering with partial forgiveness of fines.
• Simplified registration for micro-employers.
• Tax benefits for new hires.

4. Flexibility of the working day

• Hour bank.
• Individual and collective agreements to reorganize shifts.
• Greater margin for agreed overtime.

5. Changes in licenses

• Extension of maternity and paternity leave.
• New leaves for care, adoption and workplace violence.
• Reorganization of special licenses.

6. Dismissal regime

• Optional Termination Fund.
• New compensation calculation.
• Payment in installments of judgments.

7. Essential services and the right to strike

• Expansion of sectors included.
• Mandatory minimum on-call duty.
• Penalties for non-compliance.

8. Trade union system

• Optional fees.
• Transparency in the use of funds.
• Rules for internal elections.

🧭 Conclusion

The Labor Reform bill sent to the Senate represents a structural change in the Argentine system. With 191 articles that range from the way salaries are paid to union organization, the Government seeks to install a new paradigm based on flexibility, predictability and the reduction of litigation.

The legislative discussion promises to be intense, with the support of the business sector and strong questioning from the trade union federations.

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Google Willow: The Quantum Chip Revolutionizing Computing

The Google Willow quantum chip, presented on December 9, 2025, constitutes a scientific milestone by demonstrating quantum error correction below threshold and achieving quantum supremacy with 105 qubits. Its architecture allows errors to be exponentially reduced as the number of qubits increases, solving a three-decade challenge in quantum computing.

White Paper: Google Willow

1. Context and relevance

• Date of filing: December 9, 2025.
• Institution: Google Quantum AI.
• Scientific publication: Nature, where the experimental results are documented.
• Impact: Willow represents a decisive step towards building useful and scalable quantum computers capable of solving practical problems with commercial relevance.

2. Willow chip architecture

• Number of qubits: 105 superconducting qubits.
• Base technology: transmon qubits, cooled to temperatures close to absolute zero to maintain quantum coherence.
• Bug fixes:
  • It implements quantum surface codes, which distribute logical information across multiple physical qubits.
  • It was shown that by increasing the number of qubits, the error rate decreases exponentially, confirming that the system operates under the quantum error correction threshold.
  • This result experimentally validates a theoretical principle proposed almost 30 years ago, considered essential for scalability.

3. Quantum supremacy

• Benchmark performed: A standard quantum sampling reference task.
• Runtime: less than five minutes.
• Comparison: The Frontier supercomputer  would need approximately 10²⁵ years to complete the same calculation.
• Conclusion: Willow confirms quantum supremacy, demonstrating that certain problems are intractable for classical computing.

Featured Comparison

4. Key scientific breakthroughs

• Bug fixes under threshold:
  • It allows logical qubits to be more reliable than physical qubits.
  • It opens the door to scalable and stable quantum systems.
• Scalability:
  • Reducing errors with more qubits indicates that the technology can grow into thousands or millions of useful qubits.
• Experimental validation:
  • It is confirmed that the theoretical principles of quantum computing are applicable in real hardware.

5. Potential applications

• Pharmacology: Simulation of complex molecules for drug discovery.
• Energy: Advanced battery design and nuclear fusion modeling.
• Artificial intelligence: optimization of deep learning algorithms.
• Cybersecurity: development of systems resistant to quantum attacks.

6. Conclusion

The Google Willow chip  not only confirms quantum supremacy, but solves the historical problem of quantum error correction under threshold. This breakthrough places Google at the forefront of quantum computing and paves the way for practical applications with an impact on science, industry, and society.

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China displaces Brazil as Argentina's main trading partner: analysis of a historic change

An unexpected turn in Argentina's foreign trade contradicts the official discourse and marks a milestone in regional economic relations

In a move that few anticipated at the beginning of Javier Milei's administration, China has managed to displace Brazil as Argentina's main trading partner, marking a turning point in the country's recent economic history. This change, first registered in September 2024 and consolidated in October of the same year, represents a political paradox that exposes the distance between presidential rhetoric and economic reality.

The time for change

The milestone came in September 2024, when the Asian giant surpassed the Brazilian neighbor in total trade with Argentina. Argentine exports to China tripled that month, reaching record figures driven mainly by extraordinary sales of soybeans. Simultaneously, imports from the Asian country reached 1,816 million dollars, the highest level in the entire historical series.

This transformation is especially relevant considering that Brazil had maintained its leadership position for decades, supported by geographical proximity, Mercosur membership and significant productive integration, especially in the automotive sector.

A political paradox

China's rise as a major trading partner is particularly striking when considering the campaign speech of President Milei, who in 2023 had emphatically declared: "Not only am I not going to do business with China, I am not going to do business with any communists." However, economic reality imposed a different narrative.

According to official INDEC data, in October 2024 China consolidated its leadership with Argentine exports of 1,166 million dollars (a year-on-year increase of 241.4%) and imports of 1,862 million dollars (increase of 33.7%). In that same period, the United States was relegated to fourth place, also surpassed by Brazil and the European Union.

The engines of exchange

On the Argentine side

Trade with China is characterized by a marked concentration in primary products and manufactures of agricultural origin. The main export items include:

• Soy beans and their derivatives (oil and flour)
• Frozen beef (accounting for 78.8% of the sector's exports)
• Lithium carbonate
• Fish products (squid, shrimp and prawns)
• Barley and sorghum in grain

The meat sector deserves special attention: China has become the destination of 78.8% of Argentine beef exports in November 2024, absorbing most of the exportable balance in a context of local drought and domestic market without absorption capacity.

On the Chinese side

China's insertion in the Argentine economy is characterized by products with greater added value and diversification:

• Capital goods and machinery
• Automotive Parts & Accessories
• Technological components (phone parts, transmission equipment)
• Consumer Semi-Durables and Durable Goods
• Miscellaneous industrial inputs

This asymmetry reproduces an unequal trade pattern: while Argentina provides raw materials, China exports finished products and intermediate goods with higher added value.

The international context

Brazil's displacement responds to multiple geopolitical and economic factors:

Sino-U.S. Trade War: Tariff tensions between Washington and Beijing placed Argentine soybeans in an advantageous competitive position, especially after the temporary elimination of withholdings implemented by the Argentine government in September.

Need for foreign currency: Pressed by the urgency to obtain dollars, Milei's government implemented a temporary special regime to eliminate withholdings that generated a 201.7% year-on-year increase in exports to China in September.

Anticipation of changes: The increase in imports was favored by business decisions to bring forward purchases in the face of a possible change in the exchange rate regime after the elimination of the clamp.

The cost of dependency

The trade balance with China reveals an unbalanced relationship. In 2024, the trade deficit reached $5.616 billion, the largest recorded with any trading partner. This gap is explained by the differential between what Argentina manages to sell (mainly commodities with falling prices) and what it must buy (technology and value-added goods).

Miguel Ponce, an economist specializing in foreign trade, warns about the risks of this situation: "Argentina should not privilege ideological issues over concrete interests. It is very difficult for us to displace China from our trading partners. There is a need to de-ideologize our diplomatic ties so as not to continue damaging our trade and economic relations."

Strategic implications

Chinese dominance poses several structural challenges:

Economic vulnerability: Excessive concentration in a single market exposes Argentina to political decisions by Beijing. Any change in Chinese import policies could have devastating effects on key sectors such as agriculture.

Financial dependence: Beyond trade, Argentina has significant financial commitments to China, including the currency swap for 5,000 million dollars plus interest of 6%, whose eventual demand for payment by Beijing would increase the deficit of net reserves by 50%.

Regional impact: Provinces such as Catamarca, La Pampa and Entre Ríos, with high dependence on exports to China, are particularly exposed to any fluctuation in the bilateral relationship.

New opportunities

Not everything is negative in this commercial link. In March 2025, the Argentine government agreed with Chinese Customs to reopen poultry meat exports (closed since 2023 due to avian influenza) and to enable new products such as nuts (walnuts, pecans, almonds, hazelnuts and pistachios) and gallstones for medicinal use.

These openings represent opportunities for regional economies and could allow for greater diversification of the export basket, although they will hardly alter the basic structure of trade.

Future prospects

The displacement of Brazil by China as Argentina's main trading partner does not seem to be temporary. Projections indicate that this trend could deepen by 2025, especially considering:

• China's Growing Demand for Animal Proteins and Oilseeds
• Argentina's need to maintain a steady flow of foreign currency
• China's investments in infrastructure and technology in the country
• The global geopolitical context that favors supplier diversification

For Brazil, this shift represents a warning sign about the need to strengthen trade ties within Mercosur. For Argentina, the challenge is to pragmatically manage this strategic relationship without compromising market diversification or sovereignty in political decisions.

Conclusion

China's rise as Argentina's main trading partner marks an unprecedented chapter in the country's economic history. Beyond political statements and ideological alignments, the Asian giant's influence on Argentina's foreign trade is a reality that transcends governments and discourses.

The question that remains open is whether Argentina will succeed in turning this relationship into an opportunity for development with greater added value, or whether it will deepen its role as a supplier of raw materials in an increasingly polarized global economy. The answer to this question will define not only the future of the bilateral relationship, but also the model of international insertion that Argentina will build in the coming decades.

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