Thirty years after Oslo:

Without a political future, the Palestinian National Authority has no future at all

The Palestinian National Authority (PNA) was born from the Oslo accords signed between Palestinians and Israelis 30 years ago. The interim authority was created with a resolution of the Central Council of the Palestine Liberation Organization on October 12, 1993. It has survived thanks to two factors: the will of the Palestinian people, who saw it as a step towards freedom and independence, and the recognition, support and financing of the international community, including Israel, which saw it as a factor of stability.

Three decades later, many of the ANP's foundations are crumbling. It seems that it is losing the reasons for its existence and the factors that guarantee its survival.

The most dramatic transformation that has affected the ANP has been the radical change in Israel's policies, strategies and very nature. Israel, under the leadership of Labor leaders Yitzhak Rabin and Shimon Peres, the signatories of the Oslo accords, anticipated that the ANP would fulfill two functions. One was a politician; At that time, Israel needed a political counterpart, especially one that would not rule out territorial compromise. The other function was to provide services to the Palestinians, thus freeing Israel from the ethical and legal burden of directly occupying and governing another people.

The core of the negotiation strategy designed by Rabin and Peres was to keep all options open. Israel neither accepted nor rejected the two-state solution as an end to the peace process, but rather adopted an open position. In this way, Israel benefited from the duality of service/government and political functions of the ANP, without making the difficult land sacrifices that the Palestinians required.

Later, under the leaderships of Ariel Sharon and Benjamin Netanyahu, and as a result of Israel's transition to increasingly right-wing norms, Israel gradually began to confine the ANP. It became little more than a service provider, keeping the lights on and the economy humming. Israel strongly resisted an independent political role for the ANP and its representatives and punished their political activities.

Natural conclusions

Thirty years later, today's Israel, led by far-right figures such as Itamar Ben-Gvir, Bezalel Smotrich and Benjamin Netanyahu, no longer employs an open strategy towards the occupied West Bank and Gaza Strip. Israel has made a decision. In the new Israel there is no longer any critical mass, neither among the public nor among the political elite, who is willing to give up control of any part of historic Palestine/Greater Israel. This new Israel is leaving the ANP with only one of two possibilities: fit in or abandon this new reality. The pressure to fit in is suffocating him to near collapse.

This new Israel is leaving the ANP with only one of two possibilities: fit in or abandon this new reality.

The resulting decline in the PNA's ability to fulfill its political and governing role has gradually made it less relevant to the Palestinian public. The relentless continuation of Israeli settlement expansion, which led to the effective failure of the ANP's political project to end the occupation through peaceful negotiations, has eroded public support for the ANP. Furthermore, the combined decline in financial contributions from international donors and the loss of Palestinian tax revenues that Israel deducts (in effect stealing from them) is bankrupting the PA. While the United States, which was one of the PA's largest donors until 2017, has continued to fund Palestinian security bodies, it has cut aid for all other needs, distorting official structures and contributing to poor governance. As a result, public trust in the ANP has plummeted, with polls by the Jerusalem Media and Communications Center showing that trust in the ANP was 80% in 1996, falling to a paltry 50% in 2022.

Because the ANP does not exist in a vacuum, its gradual weakening has played into the hands of the main opposition party, the Islamic movement Hamas. Hamas gained enough strength to take control of the Gaza Strip in 2007, and appears to be leading the resistance against the Israeli occupation in the West Bank, thus increasing its popularity and making the PNA appear impotent.

If this vicious cycle continues – the weakening of the ANP by Israel and indifferent international donors, leading to a deterioration in performance, leading to declining public support and then further delegitimization – then the ANP is doomed. This last tangible result of the Oslo Accords is on the brink of collapse.

The collapse of the ANP will not happen soon or suddenly. It may take some time. What is breathing life into the ANP are the narrow circles of top government brass, security elites and the private sector, each with strong vested interests in the survival of the ANP.

What could make this house of cards collapse? The president's sudden absence could have that impact. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, as one of the last founders of the PNA and elevated by international recognition and domestic legitimacy, may be able to shore up the PNA while he is alive. That is why the current heated debate over succession in the ANP is completely irrelevant. Its current president is likely to be the last. Persistent factional divisions between Fatah and Hamas reinforce this forecast. Palestinian law states that once the president dies, the speaker of parliament (which in practice does not exist due to divided factional politics) must take over as president for two months, during which elections are held.

Without a president to serve temporarily, the only other path to presidential succession is for Fatah leaders to agree on a successor or successors. Experience tells us that our leaders are more likely to disagree than agree. Without the will of the Palestinian people to sustain it, the PNA is much more likely to disappear from existence, as will the Oslo accords and the Israeli political culture that made them possible.

Ghassan Khatib served as Vice President of Advancement and Professor of International Studies and Cultural Studies at Birzeit University and held various positions in the Palestinian Authority. He is the author of Palestinian politics and the peace process in the East

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